A major new, independent study – Shaping the Future of Travel: Macro trends driving industry growth over the next decade – reveals that international demand for hotel stays is significantly outstripping domestic demand, and this gap is expected to widen further. From 2009-2012, international demand grew by 20%; by contrast, domestic demand increased by less than a third of that amount, growing by just 5.7%.
The study is based on rigorous macro-economic forecasting and interviews with senior executives from across the travel industry: hotels, Travel Management Companies, airlines, airports and rail firms. Major travel providers including Fairmont, Eurostar, Iberia, Heathrow, Thai Airways and others have contributed their insights about the future of travel over the next ten years.
Key findings include:
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International demand for hotel stays is outpacing sluggish domestic demand, following the 2009 financial crisis. Domestic demand was on a par with international demand when the crisis began, but the two have since diverged significantly – and the gap is forecast to widen further. From 2013 to 2023, domestic stays are expected to grow by only 3.4% p.a. and international stays by 5.1% p.a.
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The increase in spending by travellers in foreign countries is expected to match global travel's rate of growth: both are predicted to increase annually by an average of 5.4% from 2013 to 2023.
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Europe will retain the lion's share of tourism flows, but Asia is the fastest-growing region for travel. From 2013 to 2023, overnight visitor flows for Asia are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 15.1% – nearly double the previous ten years. Europe's overnight visitor flows will grow by just a fraction of that amount (3.9% p.a.), but the region will remain dominant over the next ten years.
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More than half of domestic hotel stays take place in Europe – and this trend will continue. Over the next ten years, Europe will retain the majority of domestic accommodation nights, commanding a predicted market share of 62% by 2023. This is almost three times the size of Asia Pacific's predicted share of 22%.
The study has been produced by Oxford Economics, the leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis for business and government It was commissioned by Amadeus, a technology partner for the global travel industry. Its author, Andrew Tessler, is Associate Director at Oxford Economics and has more than fifteen years' experience as a travel economist. He recently worked with the UK government on the Davies Commission report, examining the UK's options for expanding airport capacity.
