With Australia’s international arrivals now at 98% of pre-pandemic levels, signalling tourism recovery as largely complete, the hotel sector is set to enter a new growth phase where Australia could increase share of global travel, new CBRE research forecasts.
CBRE’s 2026: Beyond Recovery report benchmarks Australia’s hotel sector against other comparable global markets and examines the growth potential and benefits of stronger international tourism.
The report shows in the year ending May 2026, international arrivals to Australia reached 9.16 million, up 9% year-on-year and equivalent to 98% of 2019 levels.
However, Australia’s population has grown since 2019, meaning the same number of international visitors now represents a smaller demand base.
CBRE’s Head of Hotel Research Ally Gibson notes using the ‘international visitor intensity’ metric, which looks at international arrivals relative to the resident population, provides a more complete picture of Australia’s performance as a tourism destination.
The report shows Australia’s international visitor intensity sits at 0.32 arrivals per resident compared with 0.37 in 2019. Australia needed 10.23 million international arrivals in the year ending May 2026 to achieve visitor intensity of 0.37, around 1.07 million more visitors than recorded.
Ms Gibson said this presents a significant opportunity for the hotel sector to capture a greater share of future global travel and subsequent additional hotel demand.
CBRE’s modelling indicates a return to 2019 visitor intensity by 2030, could lift the national hotel occupancy rate to 80% and RevPAR to $225, an increase of 24%, with Australia’s gateway markets expected to capture the greatest benefit.
“While Australia will always compete as a premium long-haul destination, there remains real capacity to increase international visitation over time,” Ms Gibson said.
“For hotel owners and operators, the opportunity is not whether demand will grow, but by how much. If Australia can modestly increase international visitation while maintaining today’s higher-value visitor profile, the upside for hotel performance is significant,” Ms Gibson added.
For Australia’s hotel sector, international visitors remain one of the highest-value demand segments. The report found average visitor expenditure increased by 31% from $5,195 in the year ending March 2019 to $6,795 in the year ending March 2026. Average hotel stays also lengthened from 6.7 nights to 8.6 nights, increasing the value of each international arrival.
CBRE’s Regional Director of Valuations, Hotels, Troy Craig said Australia’s growing international tourism demand is building on a strong and resilient domestic demand base.
“Australia’s hotel sector has delivered record performance despite the slower recovery in international visitation with domestic travellers accounting for 70% of hotel room nights. This domestic driven strength provides insulation from changing global travel conditions, while further growth in international visitation represents a significant source of additional demand,” Mr Craig added.
