Full recovery in U.S. hotel demand and room revenue remains unlikely until 2023 and 2024, respectively, according to the slightly downgraded STR and Tourism Economics forecast just released at the 2020 Hotel Data Conference.
“Performance recovery is going to remain slow and well off of the pre-pandemic pace until the context for travel improves and group business begins to return,” said Amanda Hite, STR president. “To show how far levels have fallen year over year, the 40% demand decrease we project for Q3 2020 will be a substantial improvement from the 57% decline realized during Q2. Even with a slight improvement in ADR projections through 2021, pricing confidence will lag an eventual rise in occupancy. As a result, the $32 billion gain we forecast for room revenue from 2020 to 2021 will push the industry to a level that is still 32.5% lower than 2019.”
“Economic recovery is ongoing, but fragile, and COVID-19 is expected to continue to define the travel environment through the first quarter of 2021,” said Adam Sacks, Tourism Economics president. “This sets a pace of tempered, cautious recovery in travel activity in the near term, with much stronger growth anticipated in the second half of next year.”